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Recently, Bitcoin prices have fallen, sparking intense discussions among traders and investors about whether the market has finally reached the "Bitcoin bottom." This article examines various data and expert opinions to determine if the market has indeed hit its lowest point.
■ International Cryptocurrency Market Trends
International Market (as of 7:20 AM, June 27, CoinMarketCap data)
- Bitcoin (BTC): Down 1.78%, trading at $60,979
- Ethereum (ETH): Down 0.44%, trading at $3,380.06
- Tether (USDT): Down 0.04%, trading at $0.9993
- Binance Coin (BNB): Down 1.13%, trading at $573.88
- Solana (SOL): Down 0.81%, trading at $137.31
■ Social Media and Search Data
Increase in Mentions of 'Bottom'
- Record Mentions: According to market analysis firm Santiment, mentions of the word 'bottom' on social media have hit an all-time high. This indicates that investors perceive the current price decline as the market bottom.
- Short-term Rebound Potential: Santiment points out that increased mentions of 'bottom' often correlate with short-term price rebounds.
Google Trends Data
- Increased Searches for 'Bitcoin Bottom': Searches for 'Bitcoin bottom' have surged in June. This reflects growing interest from investors seeking to identify the market's lowest point as Bitcoin prices drop.
■ Market Impact Factors
Bitcoin Movement by the US Government
- Seized Assets: The US government transferred $240 million (approximately 334.7 billion KRW) worth of seized Bitcoin to Coinbase, causing Bitcoin prices to fall below $60,000 again. This move is interpreted as a prelude to a Bitcoin sale, which could flood the market and push prices lower.
Option Expirations
- Upcoming Expirations: This week, $10 billion (approximately 13.89 trillion KRW) worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, potentially increasing market volatility. Option expirations are significant events that can lead to increased price fluctuations.
■ Expert Opinions and Projections
Social Media Influencers
- Claims of Bottom Reached: Many influencers assert that Bitcoin has reached its bottom. However, historical data shows that similar claims were followed by deeper corrections.
Market Analysis and Forecast
- Price Volatility: Bitcoin has fallen 9% this month, dipping below $60,000, while Ethereum has dropped nearly 10%. Contributing factors to the recent decline include miner sell-offs, the German government's BTC seizure, and the expected repayment of Mt. Gox BTC in early July.
- Call-Put Skew Indicator: The call-put skew indicator suggests that investors are willing to pay higher premiums for call options over put options, hinting at a potential bullish turn for BTC and ETH early next month.
■ Conclusion
The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a downturn influenced by various factors, but social media and search data suggest a possible short-term rebound. However, past patterns indicate that such signals are not always accurate. Traders and investors should approach cautiously, considering a comprehensive analysis of diverse information. Bitcoin's long-term price trajectory will depend on factors such as ETF approvals, changes in cryptocurrency regulations, and the actions of major investors.